constituencies in Zulia 2010.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) by applying what was approved by the Organic Law of Electoral Processes (LOPE) announced the new constituencies in the country. Is excited with the apparent diversity of criteria used to trace those circuits, but without going into too much detail is a political move designed to maintain the hegemony - in the Gramscian sense, the PSUV in the National Assembly.
As always, the opposition has kicked, protested, has been altered to no avail, that they -. demonstrates once more the huge political mistake committed by not attend the 2005 electoral process, under the false allegation that was not going to reach almost no representation in the Assembly. Remind comical conceit of his argument, by an exercise of historical memory: in 1988, the Radical Cauda reached only three (3) deputies in national legislative elections - Aristobulus, Pablo Medina and Andres Velasquez, no doubt, was a negligible contrast with the clear majority of AD and COPEI. The three deputies, made such a noise, generated an alternative agenda so important that in the 1993 elections came to have almost 30 members. This shows the falsity of the argument and the possibility that a dissident group of members may seek.
The decision of the CNE, will have its impact on the Zulia, but this result apart from the fact the historical analysis of voting behavior in the constituencies should be viewed in two important parameters: 1) establishing a political agenda designed to address voting preferences the voters and 2) the direct democratic election of future representatives. I think that we should not allow and in that we include the CNE, that there are no internal elections as stipulated in the Constitution, that process is key at this critical juncture.
Both parameters can make the raw results to present - based on the vote of 2008 - to be or not trends some in the election of 2010. As is known, the circuit No. 1 was composed of the Municipalities Rosario de Perija Semprún Machiques and Jesus Maria, in 2008 the PSUV Machiques victory in Rosario and Jesus Maria Semprun. In the 2nd first municipalities with very narrow margin and more in the past. This presumes that the PSUV is awarded the deputy in the circuit, taking into account the two variables we noted initially. The circuit 2 is composed of Jesus Enrique Lossada and La Cañada de Urdaneta. In Lossada won Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) and La Cañada the PSUV, however Lossada voting population is over and everything seems to suggest that UNT wins. The circuit 3, formed by Paez, Mara Almirante Padilla and allows us to say - no doubt "that the PSUV is imposed. Circuit 4, which includes the parishes of Maracaibo as Venancio Pulgar, Ildefonso Vasquez and Antonio Borjas Romero in all of them won the PSUV and hopefully to be repeated. The circuit 5, which includes the parishes Coquivacoa, Olegario and Juana de Avila, UNT almost certainly will.
The circuit 6, which form Raúl Leoni, Carraciolo Parra, Chiquinquirá, Bolivar and Santa Lucia has historically been controlled by UNT and no chance to alter that outcome. The circuit 7, Cacique Mara, Cecilio Acosta and Cristo de Aranza also be of UNT. The circuit 8, which includes San Isidro, Francisco Eugenio Bustamante, Luis Hurtado Higuera, and Manuel Dagnino must win the PSUV.
circuit 9, which includes only San Francisco must win the PSUV due to the effects of the actions of the Mayor and the organization has attempted. The circuit 10, of Miranda, Santa Rita and Cabimas should be hotly contested, because UNT is strong in Santa Rita and it joined in Cabimas can reverse the incidence of votes of Miranda, I think the PSUV can lose depending on the circuit the quality of the Member who proposed UNT. Circuit 11, Simón Bolívar, Lagunillas, Valmore Rodriguez and Baralt, then by the nature and impact of Lagunillas votes - more than 41000 - must win UNT although the PSUV should get more votes and Valmore Baralt Rodríguez. Circuit 12, Catatumbo, Colon, Francisco Javier Pulgar and Sucre, the PSUV must triumph in Columbus, Francisco Javier Pulgar and Catatumbo with what would the deputy.
As we see the sum would give 5 for UNT and partners, while the PSUV would get seven (7). Constituencies would be defined by list and it is hoped that the Indian MP gets the PSUV. That would mean that the best the PSUV would get eight (8) Members and UNT circuits could win lists. Again it all depends on the quality of candidates and their political agenda. However, it is proposed a scenario analysis interesting, we'll see
Dr. Juan Eduardo Romero
Historian
Juane1208@gmail.com
27/01/2010.
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