ECONOMIC POLICIES AND ELECTORAL PROSPECTS
Recently in this column, we note that the PSUV has the advantage of personal leadership of Chávez, who readily confronted with widespread and epileptic characters in the opposition. All studies of public opinion consultants Datanálisis, Consultores 21, IVAD, including ratifying the preponderance of the leadership of Chavez over any opposition, be it Ledezma, Borges, Capriles Radosky, Pérez Live and others. The situation becomes more difficult when the intention is measured to vote according to party preference, then the PSUV surrounding meets a preference for 36% while the rest of the opposition parties get - together, 9.5% a pyrrhic. That, coupled with the special division of the districts - which discusses the CNE, gives an additional advantage to the PSUV. However, all is not easy calculation for the ruling party.
Economic adjustment announced last Friday, which has been called the Red Friday "has several edges. 1st, is the enormous weight of public spending and social programs. Social spending of the national executive, came to represent 7.8% of GDP in 1998 to more than 13.1% in 2007. Between 2008 and 2009, the dynamics of increased public spending remained, but with a negative impact of the fall in oil prices late last quarter of 2008 and 1st quarter of 2009, which led to a reduction in the price of a barrel of oil more than $ 100 less than $ 40. Given the nature of the Venezuelan economic system that depends on the conversion bolivars revenues from oil sales, a reduction of income seriously jeopardizes the continuation of social programs. In this view, maintaining the state grant, to support the dollar / bolivar at 2.15 BsF resulted in a loss of resources that could be allocated to social investment. Additionally, to maintain that subsidy has resulted in a paralysis of the productive apparatus, following the natural tendency of the Venezuelan industrial sector parasite that such action before the state has chosen to increase the import instead of investing in producing nationally. At this point, we must realize and point out the undeniable complicity of some corrupt sectors in the national government, they have provided dollars to encourage imports and thus have increased external dependence.
There is a 2nd edge, and is the subject of inflation. The cost of these measures on the consumer price index (CPI) remains a peak. The cumulative inflation for the past three years (2007-2008-2009) 22.5%, 30.9% and 25.1%, giving a total of 78.5%, consistently has affected the income of the Venezuelans, everything related to the minimum income is well known has been outlined as an achievement of the national government, to raise substantially in recent years. Economists agree that any process of devaluation generates an inflationary spiral, in our case all depends on the actions of INDEPABIS and its development to avoid an excessive increase of prices. Either way, the central point of fact becomes how to manage the public management of these measures, even more so when this is an election year. On the one hand, the calculation of the national government is that this monetary tightening in the dollar / bolivar central government will, through the conversion of dollars from oil sales, plus strong bolivar will be allocated to maintenance social spending. This action is a calculated risk, which is the inflationary effect intended to be restrained by state institutions, but essentially with the expansion of public sector spending, aimed at serving sectors D and E, which are key electoral .
For Chavez, it is therefore of forward a policy of public spending to maintain social investment in these strata, which are precisely those that have facilitated its electoral success. For its part, the opposition is an opportunity given by the devaluation, but have the weakness of not having an agenda of suggestions are presented as an alternative to the political agenda, this weakness may be an additional factor in the chances of success or failure of their candidates in the upcoming legislative elections. Anyway, the political opportunity that has opposition seems to be lost in an endless criticism without propositions, in this case continue with the hegemony of the PSUV and Chavez. Finally, Chavez remains the challenge of structuring effective public policy and free of accusations of corruption and red tape, not to the political superiority can be challenged at any time.
Dr. Juan Eduardo Romero
Historian
Juane1208@gmail.com
12/01/2010
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